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The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) hefty military spending in 2023 came with a hidden cost: a massive carbon footprint. According to estimates, NATO’s $1.34 trillion expenditure generated a staggering 233 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (tCO2e) greenhouse gas emissions.
This amount surpasses the annual emissions of several countries, including Colombia and Qatar. The environmental impact of NATO’s spending highlights the growing concern about the link between military activity and climate change.
The report, Climate in the Crosshairs, was released as NATO marked its 75th anniversary on July 9, 2024 in Washington DC, United States. The study demonstrated the planetary impact of NATO’s military spending: increased greenhouse gas emissions. This could divert critical funds away from climate action and fuel an arms trade, which could lead to instability during a climate breakdown.
NATO is a political and military alliance of countries from Europe and North America and is responsible for 55 per cent of total global military spending.
The increase in military spending of $126 billion in 2023 is estimated to result in an additional 31 million tCO2e. This was equivalent to the annual CO2 emissions of around 6.7 million average US cars, said the report by think tank Transnational Institute, social justice co-operative Tipping Point North South and anti-arms campaign organisation Stop Wapenhandel.
According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a 43 per cent reduction in emissions is required by 2030 to have a chance to keep global average temperature increases to below 1.5 degrees celsius. This would require an annual reduction of military emissions of at least 5 per cent, yet NATO increased its military emissions by around 15 per cent in 2023.
At the anniversary, the organisation’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that its acquisition branch, NATO Support and Procurement Agency or NSPA, had signed a new multinational contract for Stinger missiles worth almost $700 million.
NATO currently has 32 member countries and it is expected that a record two-thirds of them will meet the target of 2 per cent minimum gross domestic product (GDP) spending on the military, up from six in 2021. The US is NATO’s biggest military spender, accounting for two-thirds of total spending. The United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Canada and Spain come in after the US.
It is estimated that if all members meet their commitment by 2028, the collective military carbon footprint will be 2 billion tCO2e — a figure greater than the annual GHG emissions of Russia. In addition, NATO would also spend an estimated additional $2.57 trillion, which is enough to pay for what climate adaptation costs for low- and middle-income countries for seven years.
The report looked at the challenge of decarbonising the military and cited the example of combat aircraft F-35 used by NATO. Lockheed Martin, US aerospace and defence manufacturer, that produces the warfare aircraft predicted there will be more than 600 F-35s across NATO by 2030. However, rather than reducing fuel use, this jet consumes about 5,600 litres of oil per hour compared to 3,500 litres for the F-16 fighters that they are replacing. As military systems have a lifespan of 30 to 40 years, this means locking in highly polluting systems for many years to come.
NATO also released the 2024 Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment Report on its 75th anniversary. It stated that NATO had to contend with the impacts of increasing climate change on security. The years 2023 and 2024 were marked by more frequent and intense bouts of extreme heat, catastrophic floods across much of central Europe and the western Balkans, as well as devastating wildfires in vast areas of the Mediterranean region and North America.
For the first time, the assessment included an analysis of climate change impacts on “NATO’s potential adversaries and strategic competitors and addresses the climate impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”