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The Indian economy needs to generate an average of nearly 7.85 million jobs annually until 2030 in the non-farm sector to cater to the rising workforce, estimated the Economic Survey 2023-24 presented in Parliament on July 22.
This means that India needs to shed around 3.5 million jobs from agriculture and add 7.85 million jobs per year to non-agriculture sectors for the structural transformation from farm to non-farm employment generation and opportunities.
For the non-farm sector to create 7.85 million jobs per year, India would require job-shedding of around 2.8 million from agriculture in the next two years and 3.5 million by 2030.
But despite the need for ‘job shedding’ from agriculture, the report still pointed towards the agriculture sector for opportunities in rural growth. This, it said, could be done through ‘agro-processing’, which can be an intermediate sector for the ‘farm to factory’ transition.
Quoting a study conducted on the level of food processing in India, the government said the processing level in the country is at 4.5 per cent for fruits, 2.7 per cent for vegetables, 21.1 per cent for milk, 34.2 per cent for meat and 15.4 per cent for fishery.
In contrast, 30 per cent of food in China is processed, as against 60-80 per cent in western countries.
The government highlighted that a better connection of farmers with food processing units could bring a more extensive and diverse pool of agricultural products to the market, the demand for which has been rising with affluence and diet-consciousness in India and abroad.
“As per a report by InvestIndia, the Indian food processing market is estimated to reach USD535 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 15.2 per cent,” the Survey said.
Apart from agro-processing, the rest of the jobs, it said, could be supplemented by boosting the implementation of the existing schemes of Production Linked Incentive (employment generation of 6 million over 5 years), MITRA Textile scheme (employment generation of 2 million), MUDRA, etc.
Another sector that was crucial for job creation, according to the Survey, was a well-developed ‘care economy’.
According to the International Labour Organization, care work consists of activities and relations involved in meeting the physical, psychological, and emotional needs of adults and children, old and young, frail and able-bodied.
The Survey said defining care work is the first step towards acknowledging care as ‘work’ and mentioned that India’s care needs were slated to expand significantly in the next 25 years, as an ageing population followed the ongoing demographic transition while the population of children stayed relatively sizeable.
Meanwhile, the Survey also said that climate change has played a concomitant outcome as the possible loss of jobs and productivity, while it also identified artificial intelligence as both a risk and opportunity with India’s young demography.