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Recently, various speculations have surfaced regarding the reasons for the defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate in the by-elections in the Badrinath constituency.
Although experts attribute the electoral loss to internal reasons within the party, they are not shy of acknowledging that an underlying dissent due to the losses caused by disasters in the Himalayan state played a significant role.
Additionally, an ire amongst the masses is also being attributed to ongoing construction under a new master plan in the Badrinath Dham area.
In the results for the by-elections which were held on July 13, Congress candidate Lakhpatt Singh Rana secured 28,161 votes, while BJP candidate Rajendra Singh Bhandari received 22,937 votes.
Rana was declared the winner, with a margin of 5,224 votes.
Interestingly, this seat was previously held by Congress, and Rajendra Bhandari had won on a Congress ticket before.
Later, Bhandari left the Congress and joined the BJP, which promptly gave him a ticket to contest the poll.
Ironically, this ticket is being considered as the main reason for his defeat.
Local people were said to be upset with Bhandari’s switch of allegiance, and therefore voted against him. Even BJP workers were reportedly unhappy with such ticket distribution, leading them to abstain from voting altogether.
Despite the political nuances, the environmental equation continues to play a dominant role in the election results.
The question stands as to what was the inclination of voters from Joshimath and surrounding areas in the Badrinath Assembly constituency?
They have been facing the possibility of an unprecedented disaster on a daily basis for the past one-and-a-half years.
Due to subsidence , a significant part of Joshimath and some surrounding villages have been witnessing cracks in buildings. But so far, no concrete arrangements have been made by the government.
It is noteworthy that local people do not consider this disaster natural, but rather hold government policies responsible for the faulty construction due to lax enforcement of laws. Did the voters cast their ballots to alert the government then?
Atul Sati, the coordinator of the Joshimath Bachao Sangharsh Samiti , told Down To Earth (DTE) that the environmental issue did not receive priority and that the primary reason for the defeat was the party switch.
However, another factor was the sinking of land at Joshimath and the government’s subsequent response. During the election campaign, homeless populations also expressed anti-incumbency for the ruling party.
Sati added that the government is fully responsible for the landslides in Joshimath and that its subsequent rehabilitation and rescue efforts have caused public dissatisfaction. However, unfortunately, this issue did not become a major focus in the elections.
The BJP is generally considered adept in election and booth management. This is why the Joshimath disaster did not become a major issue.
Regional journalist Puran Bhilangwala told DTE that neither the Joshimath disaster nor any other calamity in the region over the past few years became an election issue. He mentioned that none of the candidates highlighted this issue in their election campaigns.
Bhilangwala believes there are two reasons for BJP’s defeat. Firstly, Bhandari’s party-switch, and secondly, BJP couldn’t manoeuvre a caste equation.
“Despite this, BJP’s propaganda machinery successfully convinced people that local issues weren’t election issues. This is why during the Lok Sabha elections, people didn’t question leaders about disasters like Joshimath,” he said.
However, Prakash Negi, a member of the Joshimath Bachao Sangarsh Samiti differs with the above statement.
“The third reason for the defeat was the Joshimath disaster. The dissatisfaction with the BJP was due to failure to arrange rehabilitation after the Joshimath disaster, failure to build walls to prevent landslides, lack of control over construction work, and mismanagement of the Char Dham Yatra. These local issues also caused resentment against the BJP,” Negi said.
He explained that in Joshimath town, there are around 9,000 eligible voters, but only about 3,750 people actually cast their votes.
The low voter turnout also contributed to BJP’s defeat. In this election, BJP lost by a margin of around 450 votes, whereas during the Lok Sabha elections, their candidate Anil Baluni received nearly 350 more votes from Joshimath town. Negi links this to the dissatisfaction of BJP workers towards the state government.
A master plan is being devised and constructed for the Badrinath pilgrimage site, following the model of Kedarnath. This initiative involves considerable demolition in the vicinity, resulting in significant losses for local businesses.
Baldev Mehta, former chairperson of the Badrinath Nagar Panchayat, says that while the defeat of the BJP candidate was a significant issue in the elections, the anger against the BJP among the people stemmed primarily from the losses incurred to their businesses due to the Badrinath Master Plan. This resentment was evident in the election where it was displayed against them.
Mehta mentioned that people stay in Badrinath Dham for six months and then move to different villages for the other six months. This lifestyle, though not organised, serves as their sole means of livelihood. Consequently, out of fear of losing their livelihood, people voted against the BJP.
During the snow season, most people from Badrinath Dham reside in Pandukeshwar. It is reported that the BJP candidate received significantly fewer votes from the polling booths in the Pandukeshwar area.