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Cardiovascular disease, the top killer in 2022 globally, will continue to retain its position as the leading cause of death three decades later as well, a new study published in The Lancet warned.
Ischemic heart disease — also called coronary heart disease — is caused by narrowed heart arteries that supply blood to the heart muscle, leading to a heart attack.
In India, things look slightly different. By 2050, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), a common lung disease causing restricted airflow and breathing problems, is predicted to take the top spot among leading causes of fatality in the country, the data showed. Ischemic heart disease was placed second.
In 2022, ischemic heart disease secured the top spot, followed by COPD, the data showed.
The top five killers in 2050 are COPD, ischemic heart disease, stroke, diarrhoeal disease and lower respiratory infections. The same conditions were responsible for the highest number of fatalities in 2022 as well.
The paper, however, predicted that tuberculosis — the sixth-largest killer in 2022 — would drop to the 12th position in 2050.
Falls, road injuries, and self-harm remained the top leading causes of death in 2022 and 2050 in India.
COVID-19, which occupied the 12th position in 2022, was moved to the 133rd leading cause of death in 2050.
By 2050, the burden of diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, chronic kidney disease, and urinary diseases is likely to go up.
Another trend emerging in India is the decrease in infectious, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases over the next three decades. In 2022, five conditions — diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, neonatal disorders, and COVID-19 — belonging to this category stayed in the top 15. By mid-century, only three — diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections and tuberculosis — remained.
The top five killers in 2050 globally were ischemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, Alzheimer’s disease and chronic kidney disease.
In 2022, the top three killers remained the same. But lower respiratory diseases and COVID-19 were ranked the fourth and fifth leading cause of death that year. Diarrhoeal disease will move to 13th position in 2050, compared to 15 in 2022.
Like India, the world is likely to see a higher burden of non-communicable diseases (NCD), which are not caused due to infections. In 2050, 11 of the top 15 causes of death are expected to be due to NCDs, two from communicable or infectious diseases, and two from injuries.
In contrast, 2022 saw nine of the top 15 causes of death due to NCDs, three from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases, and one from injury.
COVID-19 moved from the fifth spot in 2022 to the 133rd position in 2050, the estimates showed. The researchers acknowledge that data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in 2022–23 are still very limited due to reporting lags and that there is uncertainty around the longer-term direct and indirect effects of the pandemic.
“In the absence of data that could indicate future trends in the COVID-19 burden, we assumed that COVID-19 deaths will decline linearly to zero between 2023 and 2030,” the researchers wrote in their study.
The study also highlighted that the annual probability of another pandemic of a magnitude similar to that of the COVID-19 pandemic is 2-3 per cent. This, they explained, equates to an 18-26 per chance of it occuring within a decade and 79-90 per cent likelihood within 2100.