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Cyclone Remal is likely to form on the evening of May 25, a little delayed than earlier predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). It is likely to make landfall along the Bangladesh and West Bengal coasts by the midnight of May 26, according to IMD.
The current forecast track from IMD would take the cyclonic system towards Meghalaya and Assam, putting the Northeastern states at imminent risk of fierce winds, extreme rainfall and floods.
The storm system lay as a deep depression (wind speed between 50-60 km/hr) over east central Bay of Bengal around 4 pm on May 25. IMD forecasts it to move northwards and intensify into a cyclone by the evening of the same day.
The weather agency further expects cyclone Remal to turn severe (wind speeds between 95 to 105 km/hr with gusts of up to 115 km/hr) by the morning of May 26. The wind speeds may strengthen to 110-120 km/hr with gusts of up to 135 km/hr by the afternoon of May 26.
IMD forecasts the cyclone to cross the Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal coasts as a severe cyclone with peak wind speeds of 120 km/hr on the midnight of May 26. The location of landfall would most probably be between Sagar Island in West Bengal and Khepupara in Bangladesh.
After landfall, the storm system is predicted to decrease in intensity but retain cyclonic strength for at least another 12 hours or so while it traverses Bangladesh. It may further lose steam and cross over to Meghalaya as a low pressure area on May 28, according to the cyclone update from IMD.
Cyclone Remal has shown unpredictable behaviour in its forecasts. Earlier data from the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the United States (US) had shown the storm taking a turn towards Odisha and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data had shown it making landfall more towards the West Bengal coast.
A screengrab from Windy.com showing Cyclone Remal in the Bay of Bengal
Now, the forecast from IMD shows cyclone Remal making landfall more towards the Bangladesh coast on the midnight of May 26. Weather analysis and visualisation platform Windy.com currently shows the cyclone making landfall between Haldibari in West Bengal and Patharghata in Bangladesh around 9-10 pm on May 26.
Cyclone Remal may be moving much faster than predicted and has moved at speeds of 11-15 km/hr over the Bay of Bengal till now.
IMD has put out heavy to very heavy rainfall alerts for the coastal and eastern districts of West Bengal for May 26 and May 27. There may also be extremely heavy rainfall over these areas on May 26. Heavy rainfall is also expected over north Odisha on May 25 and May 26.
The Northeastern states may also receive heavy to extremely heavy rainfall after a rather dry and extremely hot pre-monsoon season. IMD forecasts heavy to very heavy rainfall over isolated places of Mizoram, Tripura and south Manipur on May 26.
Seven of eight Northeastern states could be drenched with heavy to very heavy rain on May 27 and May 28. Extremely heavy rainfall may occur in some areas of Assam and Meghalaya on May 27 and 28, over Arunachal Pradesh on May 28 and over Mizoram and Tripura on May 27.
“Good rains can be expected even if it’s slightly to the east or west since the mountains will extract some rain from the frontend or the tail-end,” Raghu Murtugudde, professor of climate studies at Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay and emeritus professor at the University of Maryland told Down To Earth.
The torrents of rain on the slopes of Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh could mean flash floods and landslides in the region and riverine flooding for Assam. The states are currently reeling under dry conditions, which could flip to floods in a matter of days. Mizoram is the worst affected, with a rainfall deficit of 56 per cent between March 1 and May 24. Meghalaya has a deficit of 53 per cent in the same period.