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West Bengal is quickly turning into a hotspot for novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission in India. Eighteen of its 23 districts have a COVID-19 positivity rate in excess of 10 per cent, according to the Government of India.
The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare released the figure January 10, 2022. It was calculated based on data for the week January 3-9.
A positivity rate in excess of five per cent is considered critical and needs immediate intervention, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
West Bengal’s positivity rate was 33.9 per cent January 9, according to the state health department. This was more than 2.5 times the national positivity rate of 13.3 per cent on the same day.
The rate increased to 37.32 per cent January 10. That is when the national positivity rate was 10.64 per cent.
Eighteen districts of West Bengal are part of 120 districts in India that have had a positivity rate equal to or more than 10 per cent over the last week. This is also the highest individual state contribution. Maharashtra and Delhi are next, with 11 districts each.
Five of 10 districts with India’s highest positivity rate over the last week are now in West Bengal, according to the list. Kolkata leads the Bengal districts — second-highest nationally after Upper Siang in Arunachal Pradesh — with 58.86 per cent.
Kolkata is followed by Howrah with 49.09 per cent — fourth nationally — and then by Paschim Bardhaman, Birbhum and North 24 Parganas with 35.33, 32.9 and 29.59 percentages respectively.
Other districts catching up
Kolkata was leading the infection spread January 9, with 41.93 per cent positivity, despite slipping from an above 50 per cent positivity recorded a few days ago.
However, positivity rates have been sharply increasing in adjoining districts like Howrah, North 24 Parganas and Hooghly.
Howrah has almost equaled Kolkata in terms of positivity rate, with 39.61 per cent, followed by Hooghly with 38.01 per cent and North 24 Parganas with 33.6 per cent, according to health department sources.
Incidentally, on January 1, Kolkata, with 2,398 positive cases, was responsible for more than half of the cases in the state. On January 9, Kolkata’s share dwindled to just above one-third (8,712 out of 24,287).
“It is not that the virus has yet stabilised in Kolkata or is depleting. The fact is infection has spread more rapidly in the adjoining districts, which is showing Kolkata in a slightly better light,” an expert associated with the state health department, said.
The expert pointed out that in the last two weeks — December 26 to January 8 — southern Kolkata’s boroughs (administrative districts including around 10 wards) like 8 and 10 have crossed more than 5,000 positive cases, increasing 10 to 13 times over the previous fortnight.
“Even north Kolkata boroughs like 2, 4, 5 and 6, which had negligible cases during the earlier fortnight; have leapfrogged 25 times or more,” the expert added, underlining the sharp rise in the spread of infection across Kolkata.
“It is too early to say whether the situation has started to stabilise in Kolkata. But a good thing is that such a high rate gives us the opportunity to identify more affected persons and their contacts. This is a primary prerequisite to tackle the situation from the public health standpoint,” Tapan Mukhrjee, a physician and senior health advisor to the Kolkata Municipal Corporation, said.
‘Worse in store’
Manas Gumta, general secretary of Association of Health Service Doctors in West Bengal told this reporter on the evening of January 10:
After Kolkata, the cases are now spreading towards the districts. The situation is extremely grave. Most of us physicians feel that the actual number of affected people in the state should be at least 5 times more thatn the official figure, as many people have not been tested.
Gumta warned that worse was in store, with mass congregations like the Ganga Sagar Mela and municipal elections in four major cities of West Bengal being scheduled later this month.
Health experts said open flouting of COVID-19 safety norms in Bengal had triggered such a sharp positivity rate in the state.
“In this part of the country, the general tendency is to go for outdoor social gatherings like picnics during this time. We have also seen how COVID-19 protocols were flouted during Christmas and New Year revelry. All these must have contributed to such a high positivity rate,” Arunabha Majumdar, a former director-head at the All India Institute of Hygiene & Public Health, said.
Majumdar said the fact that many people were not getting tested during the ongoing COVID-19 wave despite having symptoms, was triggering cyclical infections as such people may not be appropriately following isolation and other norms.
“If this trend continues, worse is ahead,” Majumdar said.
Anirban Dalui, a doctor associated with the state health department also said “violations during Christmas and New Year must have contributed to the upsurge in positivity rate”.
However, he claimed that more testing of affected people in West Bengal, compared to many other states, was responsible for such a high figure.
However, another public health expert associated with the state government said this was not the case.
“It is actually the reverse. You will find the number of tests is far low in this state compared to most big states. Highly symptomatic patients are mostly getting tested in Bengal. You may say a biased sample is giving such a high figure. If we start to test more, the positivity rate will come down,” the expert claimed.