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The good news first — heatwave conditions will abate after today, April 30, 2022, in eastern India and Monday (May 2) from northwest and central India, India Meteorological Department informed. It also forecast some welcome rain in May in the country, which is undergoing a largely dry pre-monsoon season.
Maximum temperatures will remain above normal, however, in May over most parts of the west-central and northwest India — areas that have undergone harsh heatwave conditions in April — as well as northern parts of the North East. Minimum temepratures will also remain above normal over most parts of northwest, central, east and northeast India, the national weather agency predicted.
Rainfall in May will be above normal — 109 per cent of the long period average — in the country, according to an IMD statement. It may be below normal, however, in some parts of northwest, northeast and the extreme southeast Peninsula.
A snapshot of rainfall in India for March-April 2022. Districts marked white recieved no rainfall, those marked yellow were largely deficient (up to 99 per cent), those in red were deficient (20-50 per cent), the ones in green got normal rain while those in the two shades of blue had above normal rainfalll; source: IMD
IMD also expected ongoing La Nina conditions to continue through the period. Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures over eastern and central Pacific Ocean during La Nina conditions affect trade winds flowing over the ocean surface through change in wind stress. Experts blamed the condition, apart from warm Arctic waves, for early heat waves in India, Down To Earth reported a month ago.
The IMD statement noted that:
At present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the negative IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the beginning of June.