How does the Ukraine invasion lead to a world food crisis?

The consequences of the Russian invasion in Ukraine could be as disastrous as that of World War II, according to the UN World Food Programme. Why? After the Russian invasion sent shock waves in the energy markets, it is now threatening the food security of the world.

Russia and Ukraine are one of the largest producers and exporters of grain in the world (30 per cent wheat, 17 per cent corn and over half of the sunflower seed oil). Because of the invasion, a large stockpile of grain and fertilisers is stuck in these countries which has sent food prices soaring.

Prices of wheat have increased by about 70 per cent while fertiliser has increased by over 40 per cent. This crisis is also exacerbated by lateral factors like an ongoing pandemic and the recent spate of droughts, floods and forest fires across the world.

While Ukrainian farmers are missing critical planting and harvesting seasons, farmers across the world are cutting back on fertilisers which is threatening the quantity and quality of their yield. Moreover, more than 30 per cent of Ukrainian farmland could become a war zone.

And as millions flee the country, the population working in the field has reduced further. While the pandemic has already pushed millions across the world to the edge of starvation, the war might push them over it. Countries like Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh and Iran have been importing over 60 per cent of their wheat from these two countries.

During a crunch, smaller countries like Armenia, Mongolia and Kazakhstan are going to be left in the lurch. But, all of these countries are going to be competing against China, the world’s largest consumer and producer of wheat.

China is buying more of the world’s wheat crop because of its recent spate of floods which has dwindled supplies while countries like India are seeing an increased demand in wheat exports.

Brazil, the world’s largest producer of soybean, imports about half of its fertiliser from Russia and Belarus. This time, Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to be significantly smaller. Since soybean is also used to feed livestock in countries like China, prices of meat will also shoot up.

Rising food prices have always led to not just economic collapse but also political upheavals like in Morocco and Sudan which are currently undergoing violent protests because of inflation.

In Afghanistan, the humanitarian crisis since the Taliban takeover has been worsened by the Ukraine invasion as the country struggles to feed more than 20 million people. In the Middle East, bread makes up about half of the average person’s diet. Rising costs of bread has led to political turmoil in the past.

In 2011 during the Arab Spring, one of the slogans was “bread, freedom and social justice”. Last year, food inflation had reached the same levels as they had during the Arab Spring. The Ukraine invasion has just added fuel to fire.