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The climate crisis is looming large for tigers in the Sundarbans, veteran wildlife and conservation scientist Yadvendradev Vikramsinh Jhala has told Down To Earth (DTE).
There is no counter strategy in place to save the big cats from ever increasing climate change triggered impacts, particularly sea level rise that gradually eats into tiger habitat, he has warned.
Sea level rise in the Bay of Bengal adjacent to the Sundarbans is the highest in India; and one of the highest in the world.
“Tigers do not have a bright future in the Sundarbans, with climate change impacts steadily rising in the area, particularly sea level rise. The situation may turn disastrous because if the ocean goes up by even one meter, half of the Sundarbans is expected to be submerged. In that case, where will the tigers go? We do not have a strategy to counter that kind of situation,” Jhala told this reporter on the sidelines of an international scientific seminar organised by the Zoological Survey of India in Kolkata recently.
He also contended that the Sundarbans’ present tiger population size, 101 as per the latest census carried out in 2023, has almost saturated the nearly 2,585 sq km notified forest area; and is unlikely to increase much.
The scientist was associated with Project Tiger and National Tiger Conservation Authority for several years and considered a key person behind India’s success in tiger conservation.
Union Environment, Forest and Climate Change minister Bhupender Yadav claimed on July 28 that “data analysis using the latest statistical models for camera-trapped and non-camera-trapped tiger presence areas estimates the upper limit of tiger population at 3,925, with an average number of 3,682 tigers, reflecting a commendable annual growth rate of 6.1 per cent.”
Bengal-based forest experts agreed that increasing climate change impacts are a serious threat to the existence of tigers in the Sundarbans. However, they observed that the number may increase further if the pressure on the forest can be reduced; and the tiger reserve area can be expanded in the Sundarbans.
A senior state government official said several steps have already been taken, and a few others are in pipeline, to combat climatic impacts in the Sundarbans. “Everything may not be in the public domain, but we have already taken several steps in this regard, be it stopping erosion, mapping of critical areas or water conservation, keeping in mind the challenges of tigers staying in islands surrounded by surging rivers,” said the official.
Jhala told this reporter that tiger numbers in the Sundarbans had almost reached a saturation point. “The number of tigers may fluctuate, but it is nearing the carrying capacity; and it’s a very healthy population,” he said.
The expert correlated the limited prey base available with a comparatively lower density of tigers in the Sundarbans, compared to other tiger reserves. “You cannot make them (tiger numbers) any larger because the carrying capacity is dependent on prey like deer and wild boar and you can’t have a high density of those due to their limited food sources in the Sundarbans,” Jhala explained.
Incidentally, the Sundarbans has about four tigers per 100 sq km of forest, while Corbett and Kaziranga have more than 10 tigers within a similar area.
“The numbers may increase by around 30 per cent if the pressures on the Sundarbans, especially the thousands of fishermen and others encroaching the forest area regularly, can be reduced as even a minimum disturbance can impact the breeding biology of tigers,” Pradeep Vyas, a senior retired forest official who has overseen the Sundarbans, told DTE.
Biswajit Roy Chowdhury, a tiger expert attached to non-profit NEWS and member of the state wildlife board, pointed out that the number may increase if the tiger reserve area is expanded by including the tiger-inhabited forest part of South 24 Parganas, a plan in the pipeline for a long time.
“A hundred per cent,” said a state forest department official responding to the question of whether tiger numbers can increase in the Sundarbans. “You may see the result after the next (tiger) census,” he further pointed out.
Jhala claimed that the Bangladesh section of the Sundarbans is better prepared to counter climate threats for tigers, compared to West Bengal’s part. “We do not even have a LIDAR map for the Sundarbans on the Indian side, though the Bangladesh Sundarbans has already prepared such a map. Such a technology, that can map contours to every 10 cm, is essential for Sundarbans as otherwise you will not know which part is going to be submerged; and crucial for planning,” said Jhala. LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) technology is used to gather high-resolution spatial data about forests.
A state forest department source admitted that such a map is yet to be prepared for West Bengal’s Sundarbans, but claimed that the issue was raised during National Tiger Conservation Authority meetings without much success.
“It is costly and requires about Rs 5 crore. We now plan to undertake the work with funds expected to be made available from the lower delta project supported by the World Bank, which is presently under consideration of the Union government,” said the source.
A senior forest official from the Centre admitted that actions against climate change triggered impacts have been the Achilles Heel of all Indian tiger reserves including the Sundarbans.
The official referred to a report prepared by the Wildlife Institute of India and National Tiger Conservation Authority, agencies under the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, last year.
The report, Management Effectiveness Evaluation (MEE) of tiger reserves in India, 2022 (Fifth Cycle), shows that of 33 indicators considered for evaluation; the indicator; ‘carbon capture and climate change’ has received the lowest score (60 per cent).
“We carried out a study in forest areas of the Sundarbans in 2011 after Cyclone Aila, which recorded significant climatic impacts, particularly increase of salinity. The impacts must have increased manifold over the years and needs assessment,” noted Roy Chowdhury. He added that the issue needs to be prioritised and integrated in the management plan of tigers in the Sundarbans.
“We do not have any structured data but the forest area was significantly impacted during cyclones like Amphan, Bulbul and others,” admitted a senior West Bengal forest official.
A few years back, a paper published in the journal Science of the total environment had warned that there may be a rapid decline in the Bengal tiger population within the Sundarbans due to habitat loss caused by climate change.