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In the past 25 years, human activities have changed habitats, leading to a decline in global biodiversity. Unfortunately, there is limited capital and resources for conservation on threatened lands. It is crucial to make informed decisions to prevent further habitat loss and degradation. To achieve this, it is essential to identify areas facing conversion pressures.
A report released in the journal Scientific Data July 30, 2024 outlined a new method for comprehending land conversion pressures. James Oakleaf, a geoscientist at The Nature Conservancy, a United States-based think tank, and his team have created a Conversion Pressure Index that offers an extensive perspective on potential land conversion risks across different ecosystems.
The team utilized human modification maps to assess the historical rate of human changes from 2000 to 2015 to forecast future alterations. They discovered that human modification is expected to rise by 2030. Subsequently, they pinpointed areas susceptible to further development based on existing infrastructure and resources such as renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, agriculture, and urban sector expansion. The CPI was validated by comparing it with the observed human modifications in 2015, showing a strong correlation between the modeled and observed maps.
The maps indicate that approximately 23 per cent of land in 200 countries is under significant conversion pressure, potentially affecting more than 460 million hectares of natural area. The results reveal that industrial sectors are largely responsible for these high conversion pressures.
A total of 47 countries face high conversion pressure, with Malaysia being categorised as very high. Among these, 19 countries are in Africa, 13 in Central America and 16 in East and Southeast Asia. Out of 14 terrestrial biomes, 12 have ecoregions experiencing high conversion pressure.
The tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests biome has almost half of its ecoregions under very high or high pressure. This is followed by mangroves, tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and flooded grasslands and savannas, with nearly a third of their ecoregions classified as high pressure.
The researchers asserted that the CPI offers a reliable and spatially detailed tool for predicting future conversion pressures and can assist in pinpointing areas that need proactive conservation efforts to achieve global conservation objectives outlined in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the Paris Agreement.
Previous research primarily concentrated on agriculture and urban growth as models of land use change. However, these studies are limited as they do not consider other factors contributing to habitat loss. Conversely, the CPI incorporates various land use types, such as energy and mining activities, to provide a more comprehensive understanding of land use change patterns and aid in more effective planning.